bellwether counties epoch times

Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. And its never going to come back.. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. I kind of keep in my bubble. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. But according to the. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. I believe in a time cycle. 0:00 0:00. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. I quit voting once out of the union.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. They run the gamut from. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. She shook her head at the high price of gas. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Medicare is becoming a joke. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; 'I Should Start Voting'. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. He says Democratic Gov. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. What you need to know, summarized in one email. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. He cares about the American people.. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Timeline: Rep. Jim Jordan, a Systematic Disinformation Campaign, and When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. I hope.. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. I think all politicians are crooks. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. MORE evidence: It looks like Biden outperformed only in counties that They need to take care of the older people here. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Your email address will not be published. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. "If. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. We dont want it, she said. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Weve never done that before.. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. We believe that there are two main reasons. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. I think it worked out without me.. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. That is, until this year. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Im looking at both sides of it. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. What happened to our Democratic Party? Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. This is a high farming community.. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. I dont listen to the news. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. A lot of people think things are. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Its crazy. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Please read our comments policy before commenting. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 - The Epoch Times In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference.

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